Week 7 Playoff Prospectus

Each week, as the playoffs get closer, we will do a playoff outlook for all our teams that are still mathematically alive. For 2019, 6 wins will auto qualify you for post season play. SMCC plays an 8 game schedule so they have qualified with 5 wins. A large number of 5 win teams will make it in this year, expected to be 48-50 teams. The largest number since the MHSAA has gone to this format. With that said, if your team ends up at 5-4, they will have a very good chance at making the playoffs.

It is important to keep in mind, a team’s division is not determined until after week 9. The divisions listed below are where your team falls if the playoffs started today. In a few cases this could change from week to week(SMCC, Whiteford) and maybe a couple other. 15 of our 16 teams are still alive. Here are those 15 team’s current situation.


Monroe Trojans (2-4)

The Trojans will need to win out to make the playoffs as an “at large” at 5-4. It isn’t an easy road with Bedford and Lake Orion left to play. But Monroe is not out of it. The playoffs, however remote, are still in the picture.

Playoff Points: 27.833

Possible First Round Match-up: Fordson, Saline, Woodhaven


Temperance Bedford Kicking Mules (4-2)

Remaining games: @ Pioneer, @ Monroe, @ Coldwater

PPP: 57.667 (LOW), 70.444 (MEDIAN), 84.777 (HIGH)

Outlook: Bedford has to play three straight on the road to end the season. Monroe is the most winnable game of the three, so if the Mules go 5-4, that will likely be where their only win comes from. The 57.667 PPP would have the Mules sweating it out on Selection Sunday, but the lowest total to get in last season was 55.222. 

Mike Vicars and company would be better suited getting six wins to guarantee playing in November. Pioneer is the next most winnable game, which would then bump the PPP to 70.444. Getting a win over a Coldwater team that currently sits at 5-1 could bump the PPP to 84.777, which would guarantee at least one home game.

Possible Round 1 Opponents: Livonia Franklin, Wyandotte, Detroit King, Farmington, Oak Park, Dexter, Jackson, South Lyon, North Farmington, Walled Lake Western


Carlson Marauders (4-2)

Remaining Games: @ Harper Woods, Lincoln Park, Wyandotte

PPP: 67.335/79.889

Outlook: The Marauders should be able to reach 6-3, with a struggling Harper Woods and woebegone Lincoln Park coming up in the next two weeks. A Week 9 tilt with Wyandotte will spell the difference between opening the playoffs at home or on the road. A win over the Bears would guarantee at least a home game, and possibly a top seed in the district.

Possible Round 1 Opponents: Trenton, Allen Park, Riverview, Garden City, Redford Thurston

Riverview Pirates (4-2)

I have the Pirates finishing 7-2 which of course would qualify them for the playoffs. I don’t however think that will be good enough for a home playoff game. They will most likely be on the road versus…

Playoff Points: 58.833

Possible First Round Match-up: Carlson, Trenton, Allen Park

New Boston Huron Chiefs (2-4)

Huron must win out and hope they have enough playoff points to qualify.

Playoff Points: 28.333

Possible First Round Match-up: Carlson, Trenton, Allen Park, Riverview


Carleton Airport Jets (4-2)

Big game for the Jets this week vs Flat Rock. A win would almost guarantee 6 wins and an automatic berth, with hapless Melvindale waiting in week 9.

Playoff Points: 57.167

Possible First Round Match-up: Milan, Redford Union, Summit Academy

Milan Big Reds (6-0)

Milan is on track for an undefeated regular season and 3 possible home games through regional play.

Playoff Points: 82.667

Possible First Round Match-up: Airport, Redford Union, Summit Academy

Monroe Jefferson Bears (2-4)

Jefferson must win out and hope they have enough playoff points to qualify.

Playoff Points: 25.667

Possible First Round Match-up: Milan, Airport


Dundee Vikings (3-3)

Remaining Games: Columbia Central, @ Erie Mason, Hillsdale.

PPP: 47.336/51.224

Outlook: At first glance, Dundee might be best suited winning out to guarantee a spot with six wins. However, after doing a lot of number crunching, it is very possible that the Vikings could get in at 5-4. If they lose to Columbia Central, a win over Hillsdale will very much push Dundee’s PPP to 51.224, which may be enough to sneak in. Going 6-3 would likely put the PPP at 60.669. In the end, the season once again comes down to Week 9 against Hillsdale.

Possible Round One Opponents: Hillsdale, Olivet, Dearborn Heights Robichaud, Detroit Henry Ford, Marine City.

Ida Bluestreaks (3-3)

Remaining Games: @ Hillsdale, @ Onsted, Blissfield

Outlook: Like Dundee, Ida also would be better suited by winning out. There is a possibility to get in at 5-4, but it involves the Blue Streaks having to beat both Hillsdale and Onsted, who are Class B Schools. A win over a Class B team gets 64 points, while a win over Blissfield, who is in Class C, would only get 48. A win over Hillsdale is paramount if Ida wants to keep playing in November for a seventh straight season.

Possible Round One Opponents: Hillsdale, Olivet, Dearborn Heights Robichaud, Detroit Henry Ford, Marine City.

Flat Rock Rams (2-4)

The Rams are another team that is not yet eliminated but will have to win out to get to 5 wins and hope they have enough playoff points to qualify.

Playoff Points: 28.000

Possible First Round Match-up: Robichaud, Henry Ford, Clarenceville


Erie Mason Eagles (2-4)

Mason must win their remaining games and hope they have enough playoff points to qualify at 5-4.

Playoff Points: 21.833

Possible first Round Match-up: Blissfield, SMCC

Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central Falcons (5-1)

SMCC looks to be set up for 2 possibly 3 home playoff games through district play into regionals.

Playoff Points: 75.500

Possible First round Match-up: Manchester, Clintondale, Detroit Osborne, Detroit Edison.


Summerfield Bulldogs (2-4)

Remaining Games: @ Sand Creek, Morenci, @ Whiteford

Outlook: It’s win out or stay home for the Bulldogs. Their PPP at 5-4 would likely sit at 46.221 or 46.999, which should be enough to get in. Doing so with two of the remaining three games on the road may be too much to ask for.

Possible Round One Opponents: Lenawee Christian, Addison, Detroit Southeastern

Ottawa Lake Whiteford Bobcats (4-2)

Remaining Games: @ Clinton, Britton-Deerfield, Summerfield

PPP: 50.445

Outlook: I expect the Bobcats to win two out of three games to reach six wins. Even if they trip up in another game, they could still get in at 5-4 with a PPP of 41.889. Teams with PPPs in the 30’s have made it in Division 8 many a time. If Jason Mensing and company win out, 7-2 would get at least one home game in the playoffs. Doing so will be tough against the fourth-ranked D7 squad in Clinton.

Possible Round One Opponents: Lenawee Christian, Addison, Sand Creek, Detroit Southeastern, Detroit Public Safety Academy, Pittsford

5 thoughts on “Week 7 Playoff Prospectus”

    1. There isnt a quick answer for that. It depends on several things. One being what class you are in.

      In 2018 Class B, Airport’s Class, Spring Lake had the lowest Playoff point total of the teams that made it in at 5-4 with 47.556 points.
      It is almost impossible to forecast at this point where Airport will fall if they go 5-4. It will depend on who they beat and how the teams fair of who they beat.
      It also depends on how the teams do of who they lost to. So there are many factors.

      If I compare Spring Lake in 2018 to Airport in 2019, Spring Lake’s wins came against teams who had a total of 11 wins. Airport, if they go 5-4, while losing to FR and Milan, the teams they would beat would have a total of 8 wins. So that part of it, doesnt look good for Airport. I think to make it in, Airport will have to beat FR tonight and Melvindale in week 9. They will be pretty big underdogs vs Milan in week 8.

      I hope all that makes sense.

    2. I tried to forecast the best i could for Airport, it looks like the Jets, with the scenario I gave you, would have enough points to make it in with about 49 playoff points.

      1. Nice breakdown Gary. Airport can do themselves a favor by winning tonight, then they won’t be sweating on selection Sunday.

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pin It on Pinterest

Scroll to Top